jobs

Could a double dip in the housing market be on the way? That's what influential banking analyst Meredith Whitney told CNBC's Squawk Box yesterday.

And while the news is not all gloom and doom, Whitney -- one of Wall Street's best-known bears -- sees what she calls some "scary" behaviors by consumers that will continue to keep home prices low and a full housing-market recovery far into the future.

Whitney -- who rose to fame by predicting Citigroup's problems in 2007, long before others saw them coming -- has been admittedly bearish for the past year as others looked for the good news in the economy. She cites several reasons for her continuing feeling that the housing market and the rest of the economy will not be trending up anytime soon, including the fact, she said, that the state and federal governments will be shedding close to 2 million jobs.

What's behind Whitney's prediction for housing?

Hundreds of thousands of people lost their jobs and filed for unemployment last week. Officials processed claims at a seasonally-adjusted rate of 484,000 a week, up 24,000 from the week before, according to the Department of Labor. The rise in initial unemployment claims was the second in a row.

Economists were surprised and experts are making excuses for the numbers, saying the Easter holiday (as well as Cesar Chavez Day in Califorornia) delayed the processing of claims and created a backlog. The Journal's MarketWatch quotes a Labor Department official saying: "I don't think there is a whole lot of layoffs going on."

Mike Feroli, economist at JP Morgan Chase Bank, told the Associated Press the rise was "a puzzle against the backdrop of generally improving economic data." Some experts, including Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, suggest worker productivity may be to partly to blame for the sluggish job market.

Whatever the case, any rate of initial unemployment claims over 400,000 a week reflects a weak job market where too many employers are forced to cut employees and others are reluctant to hire.

Peace in our time! Mission accomplished! Unemployment down!

The unemployment rate unexpectedly dipped below 10 percent in January, to 9.7 percent, according to the Labor Department. And stock markets rallied on the news.

A jobless rate below 10 percent is certainly good for morale -- and for real estate. But hold the bubbly: the unemployment figure fell because fewer people are filing for unemployment benefits, not necessarily because lots more people have found jobs.

Look closely and you'll see that the number of unemployed and the number jobs available for them has been treading water in recent weeks -- neither is getting much better or much worse.

This is my first post for AOL Real Estate. I am honored to be part of the new AOL.

But if this is AOL Real Estate, why then am I writing about jobs? Because employment growth is key to ending the real estate depression (yes, depression) we have all been suffering through for more than a year. The key to real estate recovery is more jobs, simple as that. And unfortunately, according to my friends who attended this week's White House Jobs Summit, we can expect little to no real help on jobs from the Obama Administration.

This White House event was a sham, a photo opp meant solely to influence public opinion without actually doing anything, according to attendees. This can be seen, for example, in the coverage by USA Today, which proudly quoted statements by the President about what had been accomplished in the sessions, yet USA Today said their interview took place two hours before the event even started.

How could Obama know in advance what would be accomplished?

With a winter chill in the air, President Barack Obama on Wednesday announced his much-discussed plan to spend billions helping people make their homes more energy efficient.

Dubbed "Cash for Caulkers," the new program would "provide incentives for consumers who retrofit their homes to become more energy-efficient, which we know creates jobs, saves money for families and reduces the pollution that threatens our environment," the president said at his address on job creation at the Brookings Institution in Washington.

Here's how the program might work: homeowners would hire private contractors to conduct home energy audits and buy and install the necessary gear, ranging from insulation and windows to energy efficient appliances like air conditioners and refrigerators. Homeowners could then apply for a rebate from the federal government that would pay for half the cost.

Amid rising foreclosures and public outrage over taxpayer-funded handouts to banks, the Obama administration is trying to put some teeth into its program to help ailing homeowners.

The Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP), announced in February, dangled financial incentives to banks and mortgage servicers willing to lower mortgage payments for borrowers facing foreclosure. At the time, the administration said it hoped HAMP would modify mortgages for 3-4 million homeowners over a period of three years. To date, almost 651,000 homeowners have had their mortgages lowered on a trial basis, through the program, according to government data.